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IRI Forecasts

Climate Prediction Tutorial #1  - presents some of the issues associated with predicting the world's climate variability.

Tutorial #2: The Science and Practice of Seasonal Climate Forecasting at the IRI - gives additional detail about how the climate is forecastable, the IRI's forecast procedure, the skill of the forecasts, the tercile system, and others.

IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts
A net assessment (or distillation) of information from a variety of climate prediction tools, including dynamical models of the atmosphere, statistical models of climate variability related to sea surface temperature variability, and knowledge of the current state of the climate system.
IRI Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts
A net assessment of probabilities that the anomaly of the sea surface temperature in the NINO3.4 region will be indicative of La Nina, neutral, and El Nino conditions, using dynamical and statistical model preditions and the subjective assessment of IRI's forecasters and climate diagnosticians.
IRI ENSO Diagnostics & Prediction Info Archive
Archive of past model prediction plumes, ENSO Quick Looks, ENSO Updates and technical discussions.
IRI Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecasts
A forecast of the tropical cyclone activity in various basins for their peak seasons.
Probability Forecasts for User-Selected Precipitation Amounts
Probabilities of precipitation being within user-specified limits for individual stations.

The IRI is also posting ensemble predictions from several dynamical computer models and the predicted sea surface temperatures, that serve as the net assessment forecasts' lower boundary conditions.

SST Predictions
Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts from numerical and statistical Models, and an IRI blended forecast.
Statistical Probabilistic ENSO Predictions
Sea Surface Temperature predictions from statistical models.
Numerical Climate Prediction Tools
Dynamical Computer Model Predictions, forced by predicted SST's
Current model ensemble predictions compared to seasonal distributions from historical ensemble simulations (AMIP-type).
Statistical Climate Prediction Tools -- Probabilistic Composites:
Probability of Climate Anomalies Associated with ENSO

Climate Outlook for Southwestern Asia for April-June 2003
This climate forecast was prepared by a multi-institutional team.

Supplemental, Independent Consensus Forecasts Made Outside of IRI

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